Restaurant Growth Signals Often Appear Before a Digital Footprint

 

Only 24.5% of independent restaurant openings had a website or social-media presence when first identified in a study of 4,382 expected summer openings.

September 2026   |   Based on RestaurantData research

A restaurant can begin buying equipment, evaluating distributors, building menus and preparing for staff long before customers can find it online. That creates a practical blind spot for companies that use websites, social media and online directories as their primary way to identify new restaurant demand.

A new RestaurantData analysis illustrates the size of that gap. The research covers 4,382 verified net-new restaurant locations with expected opening dates from June through September 2026. Among independent openings, only 24.5% had a website, Instagram, Facebook, Yelp or LinkedIn presence when researchers first identified the project. Multi-unit openings had at least one of those channels 93.5% of the time.

The difference is largely about timing. Many independent projects are first visible through a business filing, alcohol-license record or building permit. At that point, the restaurant may not yet have a public-facing name, website, social account or review-platform listing.

Why a filing is only the beginning

A new limited liability company or assumed-name filing does not automatically represent a new restaurant. It may reflect an ownership transfer, a legal rename, a relocation or a project that never proceeds. RestaurantData researchers therefore attempt to contact the owner, operator or location management to establish that the location is new, the project is moving forward and when it is expected to open.

More than two-thirds of the locations retained in the verified summer file were confirmed through direct contact. AI tools were used to locate candidate filings and other raw source material at scale, but human researchers performed the verification and made the final determination on each record. This is researchers with AI in the loop, not AI with humans in the loop.

The definitions used to separate net-new openings, ownership transfers, relocations and entity changes follow the Restaurant Data Dictionary.

Repeat openings reveal where expansion is concentrating

Early records become more valuable when the same concept appears repeatedly. The summer file contained 1,395 openings from multi-unit operators representing 1,195 distinct concepts. 90 concepts appeared two or more times and produced 290 openings, or 20.8% of multi-unit activity. 59 of those repeat openers recorded activity in at least two states.

17 enterprise-scale companies with profiles in the Restaurant Enterprise Index recorded at least four verified openings. CAVA led when activity was measured against system size, followed by Potbelly Sandwich Works, 7 Brew Coffee and Shake Shack. Chick-fil-A led by raw count with 19 verified openings, followed by Chipotle Mexican Grill with 17.

Company profile	Verified summer openings	Openings per 100 units	Latest weekly cut
CAVA	8	1.68	September 17
Potbelly Sandwich Works	7	1.49	September 17
7 Brew Coffee	11	1.26	September 3
Shake Shack	4	0.93	September 17
Chick-fil-A	19	0.55	September 17
Raising Cane’s	5	0.51	September 17
Firehouse Subs	6	0.41	September 3
Chipotle Mexican Grill	17	0.40	September 17
Cold Stone Creamery	4	0.36	August 6
Smoothie King	4	0.31	—
Jersey Mike’s	7	0.20	September 10
Panda Express	4	0.15	August 27
Jimmy John’s	4	0.14	September 3
Dunkin’	7	0.07	September 10
Taco Bell	5	0.06	September 10
McDonald’s	7	0.05	September 10
Starbucks	4	0.02	August 27

 

These are verified records in the summer research file, not each company’s complete opening total. Unit counts used for the rate are rounded figures displayed in the Restaurant Enterprise Index. Weekly-cut links lead to the most recent RestaurantPipeline research sample in which each company appeared.

Smaller concepts can create a stronger relative signal

Two openings by a six-unit operator represent 33% expansion, while four openings by a 500-unit chain represent less than 1%. That is why emerging systems should not be evaluated solely by raw opening counts.

Six smaller concepts in the summer file recorded repeated verified activity: Layne’s Chicken Fingers, Foxtail Coffee Co, HTeaO, Juici Patties, Ono Hawaiian BBQ and Beignets & Brew. RestaurantData evaluates these signals through its Expansion Pressure Index, which compares operators within similar size cohorts.

What early opening intelligence means for cost and supply planning

The data is not a commodity-price forecast and does not measure individual restaurant budgets. It does show when new units begin entering the market and where expansion activity is repeating. For manufacturers, distributors, equipment companies, technology providers and other foodservice suppliers, that timing can indicate upcoming demand before the restaurant begins marketing to customers.

Digital prospecting still works well for established multi-unit systems. The 93.5% electronic-footprint rate confirms that. The blind spot is the independent or emerging operator whose purchasing decisions may already be underway while its consumer-facing identity remains invisible online.

The complete Summer 2026 Growing Restaurant Companies and Emerging Concepts report includes the full methodology, emerging-concept locations, repeat-opener analysis and digital-footprint findings. Address-level examples from RestaurantData’s New Opening Alerts appear in RestaurantPipeline’s weekly chain restaurant openings.

About RestaurantData
RestaurantData develops restaurant and foodservice market intelligence through human researchers with AI tools in the loop. Its research products include New Opening Alerts, the Restaurant Enterprise Index, the Expansion Pressure Index and the Atlas restaurant directory. Visit RestaurantData.com.

Urner Barry Is Now Expana Markets

 A few of my butcher savvy clients were fans of Urner Barry.  They would receive yellow sheets in the mail with market prices for many popular meat cuts.  Urner Barry is now part of Expana Markets.  I like the graphs on the new platform.  Now subscribers can get their updates online.

I heard a Marketplace (American Public Media) episode on July 14 "Inflation Came Down in June. Will It Stay That Way?".  The main focus was slowing inflation.  There were specific segments I found interesting including an analysis of the drop in pork prices.  There is a good supply of pork and lower demand.  Also, a segment on egg price fixing was excellent.  The DOJ found egg suppliers manipulated the egg clearing house to fix egg prices. The egg discussion mentioned Urner Barry-now Expana.

The egg fixing scheme was only a part of the egg price story.  The Avian flu epidemic was definitely the major influence on higher prices.

I find myself avoiding eggs priced too low in the supermarket.  I like the whole "buy local" movement in my community.  Local farmers tend to use organic grains and let their birds run free at least part of the day. I pay from $4 to $5 a dozen.  In contrast, I have seen eggs priced at 89 cents a dozen at a meat specialty shop I frequent.  I passed for the nice brown eggs from a local farmer.

Key Restaurant Profitability Numbers

In my experience, profitable restaurants have a gross profit of 40% of sales or higher and an occupancy cost of 10% of sales or lower.  It's important to track gross profit and occupancy costs consistently.

Many operators spend great time and expense analyzing a number of items with a relatively minor impact on gross profit including:

Employee meals;
Allocation of lemons, cooking wine and olives between the kitchen and bar;
Complimentary food items;
Credit card fees;
Returns due to customer complaints.

Your gross profit calculation involves net sales, cost of sales and direct labor costs. 

Whether you prefer to allocate employee meals to direct labor or cost of sales, these expenses will impact gross profit.  The lemons, cooking wine and olives will show up in cost of sales regardless of the department bearing the charge.  Complimentary food served to patrons without a charge on their bill will be included in cost of sales.

It may be helpful to begin subtracting credit card fees from gross sales before calculating your cost of sales percentage.  The goal is a better bottom line profit.  If you net the credit card fees in the sales number used in calculations, you will build in a safety cushion.  This simple change will force you to operate more efficiently. 

Food returned to the kitchen due to customer complaints is a serious issue.  Any restaurant with enough returns to have a big impact on cost of sales is in dangerous territory.  You are in the business of providing your customers a superior meal.  These returns demonstrate the dissatisfaction of your audience.

When you find yourself in financial difficulty despite a 40% gross profit (using the conservative approach of netting credit card fees from sales), you will often see your occupancy cost above 10%. 

Since your occupancy cost is often fixed, a high number puts tremendous stress on management.  I have seen operators with restaurants packed nightly in constant danger of not breaking even.  Usually, they are sloppy with low gross margins or they just don't have enough sales to justify their occupancy cost. 

Frequently, we see famous restaurants closing due to a pending lease renewal.  These operators understand the risk of trying to operate with an unacceptable occupancy cost.

Finding Your Ideal Food Cost Number

I find attempts to benchmark food cost overly simplistic.  My favorite factors in determining food cost benchmarks are annual sales, competition and monthly occupancy cost.  These factors vary widely by market segment and geographic zone.

There are times when a higher food cost percentage is desirable.  Operators suffering from minimum wage laws and mandatory employee health care costs may improve their operating profit by purchasing prepped food items.

A fresh vegetable prep team with three full time workers can cost well over $100,000 in cities and states with $15 minimum wage laws.  Qualified butchers are only justified in a small number of restaurants.  Multi-unit operators may create commissaries to butcher and prep items for their entire chain.

Commissary operators need delivery vehicles and personnel.  In addition, they need tight controls over commissary transfers.  Auto insurance rates are higher in urban and suburban areas.

A savvy operator will create a profit and loss statement designed to show a subtotal used to net sales, cost of sales, direct labor and occupancy costs.  This number should be at least 30% of sales.

There are plenty of ways to get the 30% net.  Restaurant managers in urban areas with high rents need to offset their high occupancy costs with higher sales and lower percentages for cost of sales and labor.

If you are in a city with high rents, $15 minimum wage laws, and have recently offered your entire staff health care insurance, you most likely need a low food cost %. Some of you may face a 15% occupancy cost.  If you can manage to hit a 25% cost of sales and a 30% labor cost, you can deliver a 30% profit before your other operating expenses.

You may operate over an hour from the nearest city in a mortgage free restaurant.  The local minimum wage laws may allow you to pay a premium wage in the $12/hour range.  A large kitchen with adequate storage capacity could allow you to purchase farm delivered produce and large cuts of meat and fish.

The best strategy for the operator with low occupancy expenses is to always price menu items below the competition.  You can make it impossible for competitors to attack using borrowed capital.

Waste Calculation in Food Cost

Dear Joe,

I hope my mail finds you well.

I would like to know how to take into consideration the waste calculation while determining the food cost %.

Our formula:

Food Cost% =(opening inventory+purchases-ending inventory-staff meals-entertainment)/sales

So where is the place where we can add the calculation of wastage in the above formula?

Thank you. 
Best regards,
Elie

Thanks for the question, Elie.  This is a popular issue with many food cost controllers. 

In your operation, the purchased food should be consumed by guests when they order a menu item.

If the actual ingredient used to create a menu item requires fabrication, it is possible to experience a much lower yield than you expect.  You may also purchase too much of a perishable item and suffer a loss due to spoilage.  Finally, you may produce too much of a batch recipe used in a menu item which is not part of the base menu.

All of the food purchased, whether consumed by guests, lost in fabrication and poor yields, or lost due to over production or spoilage, is included in the "purchases" component of the formula.

The goal of the food cost control team is to explain to management the causes of food cost success and failure in the period of the report (week, month, quarter or year).

If you use standard recipes and standard yields, your variance reports will highlight the difference between actual usage and ideal usage.  Focus on the high volume items when you analyze variances.

In order to have the right information available, you should keep records for the ways each key item is used.  Purchases, butcher yield sheets, portion control records, and spoilage sheets are the building blocks for your variance analysis report.

In 2015, the high cost per pound or kilo for protein and fresh fruits and vegetables is a main driver of high food costs.  Only menu price increases can help with the higher purchase costs.

By developing a solid usage analysis for all key items, you will gain an advantage.  Over time, you will see trends in waste and spoilage.  If the management team communicates effectively, waste and spoilage will decline over time.