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Monday, September 01, 2014

A Margin of Safety for Restaurateurs

In an earlier post, High Food Cost Due to Inflation, I recommended an across the board increase in menu prices. During the month of August, I received several calls and emails asking how big the suggested increase should be for most restaurants.

Anyone considering an across the board menu price increase should first conduct a thorough competitor analysis. If you find your competition has already raised prices, you should go ahead with the increase.

Every menu has a unique cost composition. I can only speak to general market conditions. Two key components of gross profit have shot higher in 2014. The impact on labor costs of the Affordable Care Act has been estimated at between 1% and 2% by operators here in the Mid-Atlantic. Food Costs have risen 7.5% in the protein category.

If your food cost percentage was 30% before the 2014 cost increase, your current percentage would be around 32.25% (30% * 107.5%). We can also add 1.5% to your labor cost. If your cost before the ACA was 30%, we can estimate a new labor cost of 31.5%. In order to achieve a profit of 40% after cost of sales and direct labor, we would raise menu prices by 3.75%.

The ACA will continue to cause general price levels to increase as employers provide employees with the mandated health care coverage. I'd recommend additional menu price increases on a quarterly or semi-annual basis to cover the additional costs. A 1% quarterly increase would provide a 6.75% increase in a 12 month period. My previous range for the increase was between 3% and 10%.

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