Forecasting 309-Covers Equal Portions

With an improved forecast of covers, proper use of POS historic data will provide a forecast of portions required for all key items. The POS files have counts on covers and menu items for each day. If you really enjoy number crunching, you can run probabilities (with confidence levels) for optimistic, realistic and pessimistic levels of cover counts.

Using visual portion control, you can build a table for purchase requirements on all menu driven reorder ingredients. Hopefully, you've setup market-based pricing with the suppliers of these key items. Check the market conditions, check your supplier quotes, make a final guess and make the call or fax the PO.

Now get ready for game day. Have your receiving team in place with scales, clear sinuses, a copy of the PO and the storage areas locked to delivery staff. Have them document the delivery and properly fill out any credit memos for invoice adjustments.

Now accounting will check the voucher for mathematical accuracy and age the payable based on industry terms. You'll be 80% of the way to lowering your food cost percentage to an "ideal" level.

Conversely, an automated perpetual inventory system provides roughly 20% of the total opportunity. Send the prepped food to the line storage locations and let the guests arrive. Follow standard portion guidelines and watch cooking temperatures and customer preferences closely(e.g. rare, well done, over easy, no cheese, etc.).

Now, watch your bank balance grow!


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